Arsenal or Man City? Our experts give their verdict on an EPIC Premier League title run-in

The Premier League title race is hurtling towards a thrilling conclusion, with just five points splitting leaders Arsenal and Manchester City – and Pep Guardiola‘s side have a game in hand and also host the Gunners in April. 

With just over a quarter of the season left, we asked our experts to consider all the big issues that will play a role in determining this season’s winners… and deliver their verdict on who will emerge triumphant… 

Which side has the better strength in depth?

Oliver Holt: Arsenal. Their squad is so good that it has become one of the season’s biggest talking points. They have at least two quality players in every position. I look at someone like Myles Lewis-Skelly, who is one of the best young prospects in the country, and he is hardly getting a sniff. City are not far behind but their rebuild has left them short of the same playing resources Arsenal have.

Ian Ladyman: Arsenal. After years where the scale of their recruitment and depth of their ambition have been questioned, Arsenal now have a squad talented enough and deep enough to win a Premier League title. At times, City’s squad looks a little like a work in progress, the type of group that may reach its peak level in a couple of years. For Arsenal, it feels like the time is now.

Jack Gaughan: Arsenal have the edge in the sense that the building of this team has taken place over a number of years and they have now reached a point of having no areas of concern – and leaving serious quality on the bench in a way that Manchester City have previously had the luxury of.

Isaan Khan: Arsenal. Their second XI would arguably compete for a top-four spot. They have depth all across the pitch, particularly in their backline. The 21-year-old defender Cristhian Mosquera is a great, versatile talent who is having to make do with a place on the bench. Whenever he does get a chance, like coming on for William Saliba after five minutes in the 1-0 defeat by Liverpool in August, he shines. In midfield, there is the intriguing battle between Eberechi Eze and Martin Odegaard, and in the frontline there are numerous options out wide including Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli. Mikel Arteta is spoilt for choice. He will want Kai Havertz fit, though, as a No9 option.

Who has the better run-in?

Oliver Holt: Arsenal, marginally. There’s not much in it but City still have to go to Leeds, West Ham, Chelsea and Everton. Each of those, for different reasons, could be testing. A home game with Aston Villa on the last day of the season might be tight, too. Against that, City have home advantage in the clash with Arsenal next month. As the stakes get higher and higher, each match will feel like a mountain to climb.

Arsenal have been wobbly this winter but not lost their eye-catching lead in league table

Ian Ladyman: There isn’t much in it but maybe Arsenal have a slight edge in that their toughest opponents (Chelsea, Newcastle, Everton) will be faced at home while City must travel to Elland Road, Stamford Bridge and Hill Dickinson. 

Jack Gaughan: Aside from where the meeting between the two is taking place, there isn’t much in it – and as such it should not make a real difference in the title race. If you were looking at marginal points of advantage, while both teams play Chelsea and Everton, those are away fixtures for City and at the Emirates for Arsenal. 

Isaan Khan: Man City. The Gunners do benefit from having just four away matches in their next 10 games. Yet their rivals have the easier final five matches. Arsenal have City away, Chelsea at home, and then West Ham away in their final five games, and all of those sides will have a huge amount to fight for.

What is each side’s biggest weakness?

Oliver Holt: Until recently, you would have pointed to Arsenal’s struggles in front of goal from open play. But Viktor Gyokeres has found form and if he can maintain that form, it could be key for Arsenal. City feel slightly light in midfield, the area that was once their greatest strength. Rodri is still struggling to become the player he was before his serious knee injury and Guardiola’s side look more susceptible to counter-attacks.

Ian Ladyman: I don’t see a real weakness in Arsenal’s team. Maybe they have not looked quite as defensively secure recently. The second goal conceded at Wolves was a mess and they subsequently handed Tottenham an equaliser in the north London derby. But I am deliberately picking holes here. When I look at City, meanwhile, I am not sure I see a settled eleven. I would be more optimistic if I saw someone like Phil Foden on the top of his game. 

Jack Gaughan: It’s whether City can put teams away or not. That’s the main issue: taking their chances. That’s improved in recent weeks but can easily rear its head again. With Arsenal, their biggest weakness is themselves and only time will tell whether they can win that mental battle or not. 

Isaan Khan: Arsenal’s is making mistakes in the pressure moments and not killing off games. On multiple occasions this year, the Gunners have failed to make sides pay having created numerous chances. This then gives opponents a sense of hope late on in matches which should not be there. Man City’s biggest weakness is that their performance and pressing intensity often drops after the break, leaving them vulnerable to late breaks in matches. That’s seen as an exploitable trend that wasn’t as pronounced in previous seasons.

How will they both cope competing across four competitions?

Oliver Holt: The Premier League is the strongest league in the world now by a distance so when you say Arsenal and City have two of the deepest squads in English football, it means they have the two deepest squads in European football, too. City’s January acquisitions of Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo will be critical in their ability to manage their playing load.

Man City’s credentials have been burnished by the important January signings of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi

Ian Ladyman: What is important here is the experience of the two managers. Pep Guardiola has been here before and seen the job through. Mikel Arteta hasn’t. To compete on four fronts is hugely demanding but can also be used as a tool if handled correctly. When Sir Alex Ferguson took Manchester United to a treble in 1999, he subsequently spoke of how winning had simply bred more winning. It’s a fine balance and on the face of it Guardiola does have the edge here. 

Jack Gaughan: Poorly, you’d imagine – and that is why only two teams in English history have won a Treble. There will be plenty of points dropped in this title race, especially if both teams go deep in Europe. They do have the squads to cope yet managers prefer consistency in selection at this time of year, so rotating successfully is tricky. 

Isaan Khan: Arteta will have to balance rotation with maintaining performance, as he has a habit of not taking off regular starters like Jurrien Timber earlier in games even when they are clearly fatigued. Man City, by contrast, have the experience to manage intensity across multiple fronts, though even they are showing subtle cracks in concentration. For both sides, sustaining focus over a congested schedule could ultimately decide who emerges strongest.

Does City’s extra experience matter at all?

Oliver Holt: Yes. It could yet be the key for them. It is possible to take away all the emotive language about Arsenal being ‘bottlers’ and ‘chokers’ and still accept that City’s record of winning four titles on the run before last season, is a big advantage. A lot of their players know what it takes to win a tight title race. They are familiar with the pressures. Arsenal’s players have only ever known campaigns that end in disappointment.

Ian Ladyman: This is a myth. This is a new City team. A good many of them have not won a Premier League. The challenge to them is just as significant as that facing Arsenal. 

Jack Gaughan: Not really. There are a number of players – Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Ruben Dias, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden – who have been key men while through Premier League title races before but 13 of Guardiola’s squad have not experienced this before. It’s whether the messages those leaders can impart will have a deciding impact on the younger group or not. 

Isaan Khan: It’s a team with a number players who have not featured in Guardiola’s previous title tilts, but it’s still the same man in charge and a nucleus of stars who have previously won major silverware at the club. That for sure plays a part. Guardiola has been there time and again, and knows how to navigate a title race. This is something Arteta, on the other hand, has failed to achieve so far in his short managerial career. It’s an element that will count in some capacity if Arsenal start to erode before the finishing line.

How we think the run-in will play out… 

Final verdict…

Oliver Holt: Arsenal win the title by three points.

Ian Ladyman: Arsenal win the title by four points.

Jack Gaughan: Arsenal win the title by two points.

Isaan Khan: Arsenal win the title by two points.