Gregor Townsend‘s odyssey as Scotland head coach now extends to nine years and 100 matches. It has been quite an innings, one which started back in the summer of 2017.
Over those first few months in the job, Townsend’s side did the double over Australia; a victory in Sydney in the summer being followed by a demolition job in the autumn as Scotland put 50 points on them at Murrayfield.
At that stage of his tenure, anything felt possible. Heading into his first Six Nations at the helm in 2018, there was a belief that Scotland could challenge to win the championship.
It didn’t take long for that notion to go up in smoke. Scotland lost 34-7 to Wales in Cardiff on the opening weekend. It was a horror show from start to finish.
The Principality Stadium became an abattoir, some kind of torture chamber where 70,000 Welsh voices roared at Scotland’s expense.
The humiliation didn’t stop when the final whistle sounded. Warren Gatland made sure of that. In his post-match media conference, he gloated: ‘I told the chief executive we would win by 20 points today. That’s how confident I was and how well we had trained.’
Kinghorn scores Scotland’s fifth try against Wales last year, and they have to be similarly ruthless in Cardiff on Saturday
The Welsh players are all at sea after their defeat to Scots at Murrayfield in 2025
Matt Fagerson evades the challenge of Will Rowlands after last year’s win over Wales
As Townsend and his players return to Cardiff this afternoon, what odds on Scotland winning by the same margin this afternoon?
Gatland may have departed the scene after stepping down last year, but those smug remarks will forever be etched into the memory of Scotland supporters.
Likewise, the comments from former Wales fly-half Dan Biggar in 2023. Prior to a match at Murrayfield, he took aim at Scotland and claimed they were over-hyped.
‘Scotland beat England last week and, according to you guys in the media, suddenly they are the best team around,’ said Biggar. ‘We will see if they can back it up.’
On that occasion, Scotland did back it up and beat Wales convincingly 35-7 at Murrayfield. Biggar was made to eat some humble pie, albeit his words about Scotland never winning any trophies still ring true.
It’s worth remembering that, in the Six Nations era, that victory in 2023 is the one and only occasion when Scotland have followed a victory over England by winning their game the following week.
Putting it bluntly, that *has* to change in Cardiff this afternoon. Going up against the worst Wales team of all time, this is not the time to show any sympathy or feel sorry for them.
Wales were quite happy to gloat after they defeated a confident Scotland side in Cardiff in 2018
Wales coach at the time, Warrren Gatland, rubbed salt into Scottish wounds by saying he always knew his team would win by 20 points
Gregor Townsend’s team can’t take their foot off the gas against an ailing Welsh side
Gatland was quite happy to rub salt into Scottish wounds in 2018. It’s up to Townsend and his players to turn the tables and do exactly the same at the Principality Stadium.
Scotland need to be ruthless, show no mercy, and leave with a maximum haul of five points. To use a golf analogy, if you don’t take five points from Wales, you’ve left a couple of shots out there.
In the final standings, there’s no telling just how important every single point could be.
Steve Tandy spent five years as Scotland’s defence coach, but has had a rough time of it since taking the reins from Gatland.
He has lost five of his six matches in charge so far. In that period, Wales have shipped 42 tries. They are conceding seven tries per match on average.
They have lost over 100 points in their two defeats against England and France so far. The numbers are eye-watering.
If these had been boxing matches, the referee would have put a stop to them. But Wales still have three more rounds to go, and there’s no telling what sort of damage they could yet suffer.
There will be swathes of empty seats. At its best, the Principality Stadium is the most atmospheric of all away venues in the Six Nations. Bar none.
Duhan van der Merwe returns to Scottish team, and fans will be hoping he can repeat his scoring exploits at Cardiff two years ago
Van Der Merwe produced a powerful performance albeit Welsh fought back in second half
Wales were trailing by 27 points in the 2024 game but came back to lose by just a point
With 70,000 Welsh voices singing the national anthem, it is an assault on the senses. But the team are a shadow of their former selves right now, a million miles off even basic respectability and being competitive.
Glasgow Warriors would hammer this Wales team, let alone Scotland. The addition of Finn Russell, Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn to that Glasgow core will send a shiver down the spine of those in red.
Russell and Van der Merwe were in top form when Scotland won in Cardiff a couple of years ago. The big winger scored a couple of tries as Scotland raced into a 27-0 lead.
Then the wheels came off. Wales picked themselves up off the canvas and scored four unanswered tries, losing by just 27-26 in the end as Townsend’s side squeaked through.
That’s the kind of mental aberration Scotland simply cannot afford this afternoon. There is a recognition among the head coach and the players that they need to go again after last week’s win over England.
‘The main thing now is backing it up,’ said star fly-half Russell. ‘We’ve had big results in the past and then not been able to back it up.
‘Two years ago against Wales, we got off to a fast start. Then we gave away something like 12 or 13 penalties in a row.
‘We need to make sure we stay on top of that. At international level, penalties and turnovers became a big factor.
‘You need to be really clinical when you get inside the 22. When we get chances, we need to make sure we take them.’
The Welsh were shattered at the end after losing the 2024 game in Cardiff by a single point
Steve Tandy will be targeting Scotland’s visit as a match his Wales side can win
And that’s exactly it. Clinical, ruthless, and merciless. Three words which will yield a handsome Scottish victory if they can demonstrate those qualities in their performance.
Tandy has been indulging in a little bit of mind games this week by questioning some of the refereeing decisions that have gone against Wales in their first two matches.
He claimed that officials have been biased against Wales, based on how bad the team have been. It was cute, a little bit of gamesmanship to get inside the mind of referee Matthew Carley.
None of it should matter. To borrow a line from Gatland, if Scotland play anywhere even remotely close to their maximum capabilities, they will win by at least 20 points.
As a nation, why do we get so nervous about these games? Did England or France look nervous at all when they dispatched Wales in brutal fashion?
It’s an inherent flaw in the Scottish psyche that we almost talk ourselves down heading into games against lesser opposition and a team who are badly wounded.
Wales fans have had little to sing about in recent years but will be in full voice if they beat Scotland
We look at ways it could all go wrong. ‘Aye, but we’ve been here before in Cardiff…’ No, we haven’t. This is the worst Wales team in history.
They have lost 23 of their last 25 Test matches and haven’t won a game in the Six Nations since 2023. If Scotland somehow trip up, we should all just pack up and go home.
We should embrace the feeling of being favourites, embrace the expectation, and go and put out a performance that does it all justice.
Victory in Wales would then tee-up a blockbuster clash with Grand Slam-chasing France at Murrayfield in round four.
It would also guarantee Scotland the opportunity to win a Triple Crown in Dublin on the final weekend, something they haven’t done since winning the Five Nations Slam in 1990.
For Scotland, a championship which began in such dismal fashion in Rome could yet be rich in promise over these next few weeks.